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Why the threat of recession is rising 0125 - Source CNN Top business news 16 videos Why the threat of recession is rising 0125 Now playing - Source CNN Why there's a new bull market despite recession fears 0144 Now playing - Source CNN Video See Apple's new $3,499 mixed reality headset 0059 Now playing - Source CNN Gun shop owner explains decision to close his business 0110 Now playing - Source CNN Target facing backlash following removal of merchandise ahead of Pride Month 0150 Now playing - Source CNN 'Jeopardy!' fans in uproar after a single letter ends nine-day winning streak 0103 Now playing - Source CNN This is how much Netflix is charging to share your password 0159 Now playing - Source CNN See Adobe's new art tool that gives images life-like effects 0040 Now playing - Source CNN See fake image of an 'explosion' near the Pentagon that caused confusion 0241 Now playing - Source CNN Reporter says Jeffrey Epstein appeared to blackmail Bill Gates with this 'veiled threat' 0345 Now playing - Source CNN See what happens when you go off-roading in a $270k Lamborghini 0221 Now playing - Source CNN World's richest man weighs which of his 5 children will take over empire 0348 Now playing - Source CNN Watch video of the extra-rugged off-road 2024 Toyota Tacoma Trailhunter 0055 Now playing - Source CNN Business Tesla shows off updates to its robot. See how it's lagging behind the competition 0103 Now playing - Source CNN Business Elon Musk 'I'll say what I want to say' even if it means losing money 0040 Now playing - Source CNN How former Google exec thinks AI could become a weapon of war 0045 Now playing - Source CNN A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here. You can listen to an audio version of the newsletter by clicking the same link. New York CNN — What do you get when you mix recession fears, interest rate hikes, a spending slowdown and a housing crunch? A recipe for a bull market, apparently. The S&P 500 is up nearly 20% from its October lows and within striking distance of a bull market — that’s investor-speak for a period of time marked by rising stock prices and optimism on Wall Street. But economists are warning investors to hold off on celebrating, at least for now. This could still be a bear market dressed in a bull’s clothing. What’s happening The S&P 500 closed at 4, on Tuesday, within 10 points of the threshold that separates a bull market from a bear market — that’s a 20% gain off of the most recent low, reached on October 12, 2022. If the S&P 500 closes at or above 4, markets will officially be in the land of the bull. Markets have remained surprisingly resilient over the past nine months, as 2022 losers like tech and media have bounced back from a disastrous year on hope that the worst is over for those industries. Over the past week, markets have gained momentum, likely because of the end of the debt ceiling crisis, optimism that the Federal Reserve will pause rate hikes at its June meeting and a recent string of strong economic readings. And while those are all positives for the economy, analysts fear that this is a bear market rally that could end up biting investors. “We’re very late in the economic cycle that’s starting to slow and probably heading for a recession later this year,” Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist for Wells Fargo Investment Institute, told CNN. “The key difference for us is that you tend to see bull markets coincide with economic expansions, not economic contractions.” Still, since the last bull market, we’ve had a pandemic, a war in Europe, a banking crisis and a debt crisis among other dramas. Markets are in uncharted territory and while an economic recession coinciding with a Wall Street boom would be a first, “in this market, you never say never,” said Samana. What the duck The current situation is a bit more nuanced than the bull market-bear market binary, said Kevin Gordon, senior investment research manager at Charles Schwab. He describes what’s happening instead as a “duck market,” meaning that stocks look nice and calm on the surface but there’s a lot of paddling going on below. Tech and AI companies with mega-cap stocks like Nvidia NVDA and Alphabet GOOG are soaring higher and “solving” the market’s problems, he said, all while cyclical and smaller companies are suffering. The S&P 500 is weighted and top-heavy, meaning that just a few companies are able to boost the index even as the majority of stocks struggle. “Exuberance around artificial intelligence, along with a resurgent US dollar, has produced extreme divergence and concentration risk in the main stock indexes,” said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. “Such narrowness is not what new bull markets are built on.” The bottom line Investors should “avoid getting sucked into this as a new bull market,” said Samana. “Keep perspective of what this is, which is a very tantalizing bear market rally.” Investors should take advantage of this swing by trimming the parts of their portfolios that they’ve been waiting to get rid of, he said as opposed to trying to chase the tech companies that have led this upward move. Hundreds of thousands of UPS workers this week could authorize a strike that will bring the world’s biggest package courier to a standstill. That’s a really big deal for the world’s economy. The company transports more than 3% of global GDP and nearly 6% of US GDP each day. A nationwide UPS strike would be the largest work stoppage in US history, reports my colleague Vanessa Yurkevich. The union represents more than half of UPS’s total global employee base – 340,000 UPS Teamsters – which includes drivers and package sorters. The vote would only authorize the strike if their union – the International Brotherhood of Teamsters – does not reach a new contract with UPS by August 1st. The vote results will be announced next week on June 16, the union said. Strike authorization votes are routine during contract negotiations, and almost always pass. At the heart of the negotiations for the union is improved pay and benefits and better working conditions, including adding air conditioning in the panel trucks used for UPS deliveries, which the union says poses a health risk for drivers. “All Teamsters at UPS must be ready to show these corporate executives how serious we are about our new contract. We’ve been organizing, training, and rallying in the lots. Now it’s time to vote,” said Fred Zuckerman, the Teamsters General Secretary-Treasurer. “UPS is going to give us what we’ve earned. But we have to fight like hell for it. We must be prepared to hit the streets August 1 if UPS screws this up.” In April, UPS signaled it was committed to reaching an agreement before then. “Taking care of our people and delivering for our customers is our top priority,” UPS said in a statement. Chapter 11 filings in the US have reached their highest levels since the end of the Great Recession, according to new data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.. There were 54 corporate bankruptcy filings during May, a slight rise from the 52 recorded in April. In the first five months of 2023, there were more filings than any comparable period since 2010. From Vice Media to Bed Bath & Beyond, there have been a slew of high-profile bankruptcies this year. In late May, corporate America had its worst 48-hour stretch of bankruptcies since at least 2008. So far, more than 286 companies have filed for bankruptcy in 2023, according to the latest data from S&P Global, which tallied the figures through May. Retail companies have been some of the hardest hit in the current economic environment as consumers pare back spending. Party City, Tuesday Morning and David’s Bridal are just some of the retailers to have filed for bankruptcy this year. When it comes to financial fairness in relationships, the consensus from experts is clear it's about more than just the there is no one right approach, achieving financial equity rather than equality also needs to factor in feelings of security and teamwork, for asked on the socials what you believe financial equity looks like in your relationship, and some of the answers surprised us.We've opted to share first names only, as many people are pretty private about money.'We share expenses proportionate to income'Lizzie, 28, NSWWe live together, plan to be married and split our shared expenses proportionate to worked out our total monthly income, and who brought in what as a percentage, as he earnt significantly more than me at the split everything on a 60/40 basis. For example, he would pay 60 per cent of our rent and I'd pay 40 per felt fair as it meant that whoever earnt more contributed I got a pay rise, we recalibrated our numbers and I increased how much I was contributing, while his amount feels fair to us and we plan to review until we fully combine finances down the track.'I don't expect him to pay more'Kate, 40, BrisbaneWe split everything 50/ means after our bills are paid, the rest is up to you — splurge, invest, go out, been married for 10 years, and never had a fight over money or also means we have some independent shares and savings of our I know this is a touchy subject, but we split 50/50 even though he earns more than use half of everything so don't expect him to pay more just because he has a better paying think the key is to find what works for you and your relationship, as there is not a one-size-fits-all approach.'Always have your own money and savings'Mia, 37, BrisbaneMy partner and I scale on income. We have separate accounts, and put a contribution each week into a joint account for bills, food, adventures, worked really well, and we have never had an argument about a previous relationship, we totally combined all will never, ever do that always, always, always have your own money and savings in reserve.'Down the middle'Chiara, 30, SydneyWe have a hybrid separate/shared arrangement, which we have had in place basically since we moved in both work in the same field on the same award, so our income has always been our income is basically the same, we split all bills mortgage, utilities, dog walking, etcetera down the am responsible for the budgeting for our shared expenses our household labour/mental load is very equitable overall, this just happens to be one of my responsibilities.There have been times when one of us has earnt more than the those times we continue to split our bills 50/50 but whoever is earning more tends to shout discretionary expenses.'He saves, I spend'Jade, 40, PerthMy husband and I have been married for 10 years. We have three kids aged seven and works full time and I work four days a pays the mortgage and puts money into an account for all our bills, which we worked out to be about $40,000 a pay for groceries which are about $26,000 plus all the kids' expenses — out-of-school care, vacation care, day care, sports, parties, presents, clothes, etcetera, and for holidays usually $5,000 to $10,000 a year.We have a shared account for school also both contribute $50 to our kids' bank accounts every spend or save whatever we have left. He saves. I spend. Some couples split all bills equally, while others divide bills by category, such as child-related expenses and household bills.'I will never combine money'Emerie, 26, Central Coast NSWWe split everything 50/ have a Splitwise account we put all our bills into and who paid for ends up levelling out pretty damn transfers me his half of rent and the rest are on the works great for us!I took a significant pay cut so I will be bringing up equity on rent him to pay more and me a bit less.I will never combine my money with we buy an asset together, we have both agreed to have a lawyer draw up an agreement in case anything are very aligned.'Whoever earns more contributes more'Bianca, 30, Gold CoastWe are trying to split by equity not our relationship, as jobs changed, our incomes have we got serious and started sharing money a few years in, we've generally expected from each other that whoever is earning more contributes more to our shared income was when we were both in we are both self-employed, the same principle exists, but it's a little trickier to navigate with a big difference in our separate business we still work off our forecasted income and try to delegate the percentages to match our incomes.'I pay all the bills'Kirstie, 33, north QueenslandMy partner gives me all the week he transfers his pay into my account, and I pay all the bills, living expenses, just works for us as [otherwise] he spends so Everyday in your inboxGet our newsletter for the best of ABC Everyday each week

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